The #1 retirement fear — and how to see if it applies to you. Two scenarios compared side-by-side.
Whether you run out of money depends on three key factors: market returns, your spending level, and how long you live. Under moderate assumptions this $750K scenario works. Under conservative assumptions, the portfolio runs thin after age 85.
These are illustrative assumptions. Your situation will differ. Run your personalized projection with Bullseye.
| Age | Year | Portfolio | Income | Expenses + Tax | SS Benefits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 2026 | $733K | $0 | $60,264 | -- |
| 66 | 2027 | $715K | $0 | $61,809 | -- |
| 67 | 2028 | $714K | $31,827 | $75,535 | $31,827 |
| 70 | 2031 | $754K | $52,167 | $75,592 | $52,167 |
| 73 | 2034 | $814K | $80,336 | $86,821 | $57,005 |
| 75 | 2036 | $854K | $86,186 | $88,521 | $60,476 |
| 80 | 2041 | $978K | $103,260 | $85,681 | $70,109 |
| 85 | 2046 | $1.2M | $123,657 | $101,051 | $81,275 |
| 90 | 2051 | $1.4M | $146,061 | $118,641 | $94,220 |
| 95 | 2056 | $1.2M | $167,536 | $379,659 | $109,227 |
All dollar amounts are in future (nominal) dollars. Milestone ages are highlighted.
The difference between 4% and 6% average returns is enormous over 30 years. At 4%, your portfolio barely keeps pace with inflation after withdrawals. At 6%, it has room to grow. Unfortunately, you won't know your actual returns in advance — which is why testing conservative assumptions matters.
Small differences in annual spending compound dramatically. Spending $60,000/year vs. $55,000/year means an extra $150,000 withdrawn over 30 years — plus the lost investment growth on that money. The 4% rule provides a starting framework for sustainable withdrawal rates.
A plan that works to age 85 may fail at 95. Given that a 65-year-old couple has a 50% chance of at least one spouse living past 90, planning to only age 85 is risky.
The fear of running out of money is valid — but addressable with proper planning. The key is testing your plan under multiple assumptions, building in spending flexibility, and maximizing guaranteed income sources like Social Security. Use Bullseye to model your specific situation and see exactly when (and if) your portfolio runs out under different conditions.
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